According to a thorough examination of 24 possibilities in 15 papers, the mainstays of the chemical industry’s feedstock in 2050 will be biomass, CCU, and recycling.
A landmark analysis titled “Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050” was conducted by experts from the Nova Institute on behalf of the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI). This study expands upon RCI’s groundbreaking efforts to present the ideas of Defossilization and renewable carbon offer a rigorous evaluation of net-zero goals for the plastics and chemical sectors.
With an emphasis on total growth and renewable carbon sharing, the recently published paper assesses existing research with net-zero 2050 visions and scenarios for chemicals or plastics. Following thorough quality checks of the papers that were available, 15 research totalling 24 scenarios were assessed for the respective contributions of non-fossil feedstocks and routes anticipated by 2050.
Important Results
Industry Growth Forecasts
Most worldwide scenarios predict that the chemical industry’s production will continue to increase. The average annual growth rate of the global feedstock demand for the chemical or plastics industry is projected at 2.9% (range 2%-4%). This indicates a slight deceleration compared to 3-4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) observed in recent decades. Studies differ on the extent to which this growth will be offset by efficiency gains along the value chain. Overall, this translates into an approximate 2.4- fold increase in global feedstock demand from the chemical industry by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.
Notably, growth patterns show significant geographical differences:
- Most of the growth is expected to take place outside of Europe,
- Feedstock volumes in Europe are predicted to remain stable through 2050
Carbon Shares from Renewables
The analysis reveals a clear trend toward defossilisation. All scenarios include biomass and recycling as possible alternatives to replace fossil carbon, while two thirds also include carbon capture and storage (CCU). A complete defossilisation is considered in 10 of the 24 scenarios. The remaining studies expect a residual share of fossil carbon feedstocks, and in those cases combine these processes with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
Despite variations in modelling approaches, assumptions and scope, the results of the studies agree on a common vision: in a net-zero future, the chemical industry’s feedstock shifts dramatically away from fossil feedstocks. Biomass, CCU and recycling are consistently identified as the pillars of this transition and beyond, with recycled feedstock projected as the main source of carbon for plastics production (see Figures 1 and 2).
The results unequivocally demonstrate that the only way to maximise carbon recovery and circularity of carbon is to incorporate and scale chemical recycling, even though there are still uncertainties regarding the amount of chemical recycling because of the existing low levels of technological preparedness.
For business executives, legislators, and academics aiming to achieve a net-zero future in the chemical industry, this paper offers priceless insights. In order to achieve the challenging targets set for 2050, it emphasises the critical need for ongoing innovation and investment in renewable carbon solutions.