It’s no secret that 2023 has been a rocky road for the bedding segment, and most manufacturers agree that next year will bring its own set of challenges.
According to the latest forecast from the International Sleep Products Assn., the U.S. mattress industry will wrap 2023 with a 12% decline in unit shipments and a 7.5% drop in the value of mattresses and foundation sales. Looking ahead to 2024, ISPA is predicting flat shipments in the domestic mattress business and a modest 1.5% increase in the value of products sold.
The higher average unit selling price is helping mattress makers from crying the blues, but elevated interest rates — and yet another hike could be coming from the Federal Reserve — that are cooling the housing market and consumers more focused on spending on things other than home goods are suppressing sales across the category.
If the forecasts for 2024 hold true, it will mean the three-year downward slide for the category will come to an end. In 2021, unit shipments contracted 2.7%, and that was followed in 2022 by 14.7%. It has been a long, dramatic slide following the heyday of 2020 during the pandemic when consumers were gobbling up all things home, mattresses included. That year, the domestic mattress segment posted a 7% increase in shipped units and a 6.9% increase in value of mattresses sold.
That pull-forward demand created challenging year-over-year comps and filled homes with new mattresses, which are not replaced annually. Compound that with a consumer set that suffered quarantine fatigue and turned their spending to travel and other spending once things reopened.
Other issues’ impact
In addition to the economic challenges and election year, the industry has a number of big issues that it will continue to grapple with in 2024.
As of Furniture Today’s publishing deadline, the industry’s third antidumping action is currently under review by the U.S. International Trade Administration for a new slate of 13 countries.
The move, if it follows the same path as the previous two actions, will prove helpful to domestic mattress makers, while importers from the 13 countries will face duties to sell into the U.S.
The category is ripe for mergers and acquisitions, including the industry’s largest — Tempur Sealy’s pending acquisition of Mattress Firm — which has the industry all abuzz.
This year has been filled with a number mergers and acquisitions, including most recently, Bedding Industries of America’s merger with Saatva, and 3Z Brands’ acquisition of three boxed bed brands.