Strong investment in artificial intelligence and supply chain adjustments drive upgraded outlook, while services trade growth forecast is revised downward
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% projected in March, citing supply chain adjustments and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
However, the WTO lowered its forecast for commercial services trade growth in 2026, citing conditions in the Middle East, according to its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report.
The report revised its forecast for growth in the volume of services trade in 2026 to 3.3%, down from 4.8% in March.
Global Trade Outlook for 2027
For 2027, the WTO projected merchandise trade volume growth of 4.1% and services trade volume growth of 6.4%.
The organisation also forecast global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
The revised merchandise trade forecast reflects stronger-than-expected trade activity supported by changes in supply chains and increased investment in AI-related technologies.
WTO Highlights Resilience and Vulnerabilities
WTO Director-General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures “reflect the resilience of trade on the ground”.
WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill, speaking at a press conference, cautioned that the trading system’s demonstrated resilience and ability to recover did not necessarily mean it was strong.
“Vulnerabilities remain, and members are working to address them. Strengthening the multilateral trading system will help ensure that the global economy is better equipped to deal with future shocks,” Hill added.
The latest outlook highlights contrasting expectations for merchandise and services trade, with the WTO raising its projection for goods trade growth while lowering its forecast for services in 2026.